Dr. Ernest Evans is a respected crime expert and his studies have been featured in a great many news and academic publications. Today our blog community is blessed with his thought-provoking analysis of the recent uptick in local crime along with an comprehensive breakdown of KCMO crime statistics.
Accordingly . . .
THE ANALYSIS OF DR. EVANS REVEALS A STUNNING GLIMPSE AT URBAN CORE CONFLICT AMID ONE OF THE BLOODIEST YEARS IN KANSAS CITY HISTORY!!!
Here's the word from one of the most brilliant denizens of our blog community and leader in crime research . . . The image selection choice here belongs to TKC but the BRILLIANT words and ESSENTIAL research & data are the word of Dr. Evans. Checkit:
Dr. Ernest Evans: The 2016 Crime Situation in Kansas City, Missouri
In the years since 2014 crime patterns in KCMO have generally, in two key respects, followed national trends. First, there has been a steady increase in crime since the summer of 2014. According to FBI statistics, homicides in the US fell 6% in the first six months of 2014--but rose 5% in the last six months of 2014. Again according to FBI statistics, homicides nationally increased about 12% in 2015. And, a story in the Wall Street Journal in late December 2016 reported that in 16 of the nation's 20 biggest cities homicides increased in 2016.
KCMO followed these national crime trends. In the first eight months of 2014 there were 41 homicides in KCMO--but in the last four months of the calendar year there were also 41 homicides--for a yearly total of 82 homicides. In 2015 there was a yearly total of 112 homicides, and in 2016 there were 125 homicides.
The second way in which KCMO followed national crime trends is that the increase in crime was disproportionately in the nation's black neighborhoods. Of the 12% homicide increase nationally in 2015, 70% of the increase was because of additional black homicide victims. In Chicago in 2016 homicides went from 484 in 2015 to 765 in 2016--of that increase of 281 victims 215 were black men, women and children and 66 were white/Asian/Hispanic men, women and children.
In KCMO in 2014 there were 51 black homicides and 31 homicides for other races. In 2015 there were 81 black homicides and 31 for other races, and in 2016 there were 99 black homicides and 26 for other races. So, in 2015 and 2016 the number of black homicides in KCMO increased significantly, while homicides of other races basically remained stationary.
A variety of explanations have been put forward to explain this large increase in violence in the US since the summer of 2014. Experts point to the easy availability of guns in the US, the lack of job opportunities for young people, particularly young black people, in our society, the breakdown of the family structure, etc. All of these explanations account for part of the increase, but it must be acknowledged that a big part of the increase is what is called "the Ferguson effect"--named after the tragic shooting by a white officer of a young black man in Ferguson, Missouri on August 9, 2014.
In contemporary American society police officers are required to do, on a daily basis, a most un-PC thing: Use force against black people. And, as any veteran cop can tell you, there is no such thing as a "nice take down"--they all look terrible on camera. Given that painful reality, if police officers are to have the morale and motivation to do their jobs in black neighborhoods they must have the confidence that if accused of racist misconduct they will get due process and some degree of fair media coverage. When they lack such confidence, out of sheer self-survival they abandon their duties in black neighborhoods. Nature abhors a vacuum--so the gangs and the criminal elements take over the streets in these neighborhoods and violence explodes. This appears to be what has been happening in most of the nation's black neighborhoods since the Ferguson tragedy in 2014.
In conclusion, it is time to end the polarized debate in America over police relations with the black community. The current polarized debate is hurting all parties concerned--crime is exploding in black neighborhoods; and there has been a sharp increase in the number of police officers shot and killed in the line of duty. (63 cops were shot and killed in the line of duty in 2016 compared to 39 in 2015.)
What we as a nation must do on this most emotional issue is do what has become difficult in recent years here in America: Agree to a reasonable compromise. On the one hand officers who abuse their power must be held accountable, but on the other hand in the adjudication of such cases the accused cops have to be given due process and fair media coverage. If we do not soon come to such a compromise agreement, there is every sign that the increase in violence we have witnessed since the summer of 2014 will continue.
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